《Science》刊文探讨中国可持续发展的道路

    最新一期《Science》（《科学》，2010年4月2日出版）发表了一篇政策专论，作者是密歇根州立大学的刘建国（音译，英文原名为Jianguo Liu）。文章认为，尽管中国自1949年建国以来已经在经济上实现了快速发展，在环境保护上也做出了很多努力，但是她的环境可持续性在2005年仍仅仅位列146个被评估国家的第133位。该文认为很多方面，如社会经济、政治、人口和技术，都影响了中国的环境可持续性，并且其中的任何一个方面都能够直接或间接地对其产生消极或积极的影响。该文对过去六十年影响中国可持续性的各因素的复杂性进行了探讨，并且展望了其将来的发展。以下是其全文。

China's Road to Sustainability

Jianguo Liu

Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA.

E-mail: jliu@panda.msu.edu

Although China has achieved exceptional economic growth and has endeavored to protect the environment since its founding in 1949, it ranked 133rd among 146 countries assessed for environmental sustainability in 2005 (1). Many forces (e.g., socioeconomic, political, demographic, and technological) influence China's environmental sustainability. Any individual force can cause positive and negative impacts on sustainability directly or indirectly. This forum illustrates the complexity of forces that have affected China's sustainability over the past six decades and offers perspectives for the future.

Both internal and external forces vary across space and time. They can enhance or offset each other differently depending on the context, which often leads to nonlinear and unexpected consequences. During the past 60 years, negative impacts have been stronger than positive ones, with most environmental conditions worsening and few improving. The "Great Leap Forward" movement (1958–1961) the loss of at least 10% of China's forests to fuel backyard furnaces for steel production (2). The "Learn from Dazhai in Agriculture" movement (1964–1978) transformed numerous landscapes and filled countless lakes, wetlands, and coastal areas for crop production with little regard for topographic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions (

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